April 27, 2008...7:51 am
Where is Rodney hiding?
The Wellington press gallery reporters, when analysing the polls, always assume Rodney Hide will retain the Epsom seat he took off National’s Richard Worth in 2005, so they always count Act as winning at least one seat, even though these nationwide polls of 900 people are not done at electorate level.
Unless Rodney keeps Epsom, Act will likely not remain in Parliament, so low is its nationwide support. A party needs 5 per cent of the list vote to be allocated seats, unless it wins an electorate seat.
Hmmmm. Some good friends who’ve lived in the heart of the Epsom seat for years told me over dinner last night they believed Rodney was goneburger, for the simple reason they never see nor hear from or about him any more.
“Epsom people voted for him because he was such a bulldog, he got stuck in. Then he went on Dancing with the Stars and vanished.”
These were not anti-Act people I was with. They voted for Rodney in 2005 and voted for John Banks as mayor at the local body elections. They call Richard Worth, the invisible National MP who lost Epsom to Rodney, “Richard Worthy” and even “Richard Worthless.”
But according to David Farrar’s helpful list of candidates, list MP Worth is National’s candidate for the seat again, which must give Hide a head start. I have always been saddened that a seat (Epsom is mostly based on the former Remuera seat) and party that produced someone with the mana of Douglas Graham would allow him to be replaced with an anonymous time-server, which must have been at least part of the reason Richard Worth lost the seat to Rodney.
13 Comments
April 27, 2008 at 9:09 am
Thats an excellent point you make about polling, Poneke. Of course, the only place to poll regarding Rodney’s likelihood of retaining his seat is amongst the voters of Epsom, but many people miss this entirely.
It does seem that ACT is indeed goneburger. Sadly. One hears nothing about them in the media and they seem not to have the will any more. Even old Roger the Dodger’s recent resurrection only caused a faint ripple of interest because nobody in ACT seemed to have the energy to try to use it as an opportunity to SAY something interesting. Yawn….
April 27, 2008 at 9:36 am
I see Act is the “Smart Green” Party.
http://www.act.org.nz/
“Climate change is a justifiable concern. By the same token, we need to recognise the significant scientific uncertainties that still exist.” Someone described the Green Party as “the Red Army advancing under brush” and it looks like Act is using the same tactic.
April 27, 2008 at 11:49 am
I currently live in the Epsom electorate, and I received all sorts of strange goings-on in the run-up to the last election, the full set of the Brethren pamphlets, and a rather unusual phone call.
I didn’t want to vote for Rodney Hide because I felt that someone who was the leader of a small political party wouldn’t have much time to dedicate to his constituents. Despite the perception, not everyone who lives in the Epsom electorate is a Remuera conservative. A fair chunk of the electorate is in Mt Eden, including people on low incomes who live in cheap, intense, concrete-block flats.
As for me, well, a few years ago, on Waitangi Day, I saw Mr Hide driving down the SH1 talking on his cellphone. I emailed his office saying I was shocked to see they. They assured me a hands-free kit would be installed. But a year later I again saw him in his distinctive car, again talking on his cellphone. My heart is broken.
April 27, 2008 at 12:32 pm
Rodney is hand over fist the best opposition MP in the house…..he has managed to reinvent himself all the while represting Epsom far better than any previous MP has…..
He’s the only one offering a real change of direction for NZ as National under Key has basically surrendered completely to Socialism….
Get real.
April 27, 2008 at 1:03 pm
James,
By ‘reinvent himself’ I guess you mean lose some weight, dance with some stars and stop chasing made up scandals like an Ian Wishart puppy.
You will note that he hasn’t made any progress for ACT in the polls, so whatever change he is offering is not one that the voters seem to be interested in.
ACT got it’s best result when National was led by English. National had a donor revolt and lot’s of money went ACT’s way. National sorted that out in the “no Brash, no Cash’ deal and ACT’s electoral fortunes declined with their funding.
Last election ACT seemed to run, based on the material they sent me in Wellington central, on a ‘God, Gun’s and Gay’s’ American style platform. With predictable results.
National, this year is running to the centre, (that you confuse this with socialism says more about you than it does about the Nats). This is becasue the NZ public have no desire for neoliberal reform. The Nats know this, their backers know this, everyone knows this. ACT may pick up a few points from the rightest fringes of National support but not enough to make a difference.
If national turns sharply the right post-election, and I believe they will be under some pressure to do so from their backers, they will be a one term govt. If their coalition partners allow them to complete a term.
Welcome to MMP. It’s been a while but I’m sure you’ll get the hang of it. The old days of Palmer’s ‘Unbridled Power’ are gone. The two main parties will fight mostly in the centre, and the reliance on small parties will keep them from ’secret agendas’.
That’s what’s real James.
April 27, 2008 at 2:07 pm
“they never see nor hear from or about him any more”.
What pants. Richard Worth is the other candidate for fuck’s sake. Rodney makes one appearance at a local cafe and its more than Worth would have made in a year.
Richard Worth was though last seen parking his painted car on Remuera Road and leaving it there a week just so Epsom voters felt he was still living in Epsom and not in Monaco.
April 27, 2008 at 5:46 pm
“‘they never see nor hear from or about him any more”’.
What pants.”
All too true, Cactus Kate. If someone disagrees with you they are obviously lying. You know what they have and haven’t seen, and that’s that. I live in Epsom and haven’t seen him or his Noddy car for
at least a year. I must be lying though…
“Rodney makes one appearance at a local cafe and its more than Worth would have made in a year.”
Nice of Rodney to show his face in a cafe. It was a local one, as well! He really is doing things for Epsom, isn’t he?
Hide was lucky once. He won’t be lucky again. Worth by a mile.
April 27, 2008 at 6:02 pm
I have a hard time understanding Rodney, but I think he obviously knows what he is doing. I think he will continue to be lucky.
[Poneke says: You are the 2000th comment posted on my blog since I began it in December. Congratulations, and have a virtual chocolate fish.]
April 27, 2008 at 7:21 pm
I live in Newmarket and see Rodney all the time. Probably see him along Broadway once a week, often going into shops etc to talk to people.
I don’t know about the rest of you, but the perception in my part of the electorate is that he’s a hard-working local member. I didn’t vote for him in 2005 (I was living elsewhere) but I will certainly be voting for him this year, while giving my party vote to National.
April 27, 2008 at 7:40 pm
It’s my understanding that National have decided not to (seriously) contest Epsom in the upcoming election - which is fortunate for ACT who have been registering at an incredible 0% in recent polls. Presumably Richard Worth will once again receive a high spot on the party list as a reward for his acquiescence.
April 27, 2008 at 8:32 pm
One of Acts policies is transparency in government. I hope that extends to who advances the party money and what they expect to get for it (the same applies to National and Labour).
April 27, 2008 at 10:00 pm
Rodney is damned if he does and damned if he doesn’t really with regards the TV performances which give the most “public” of profiles. Minor parties don’t get massive amounts of air time for matters in the House and any time Rodney is on TV he is unfairly scrutinised for what he is on TV for.
Rodney is a Party leader and seems to come in for more criticism than most about where he is and what he is doing. For example how many Mt Albert citizens actually see Helen Clark in her electorate? Or John Key in his? Or Winston Peters in his ;)?
If you haven’t seen Rodney in the electorate Jeremy then maybe it’s because you don’t spend a lot of time in the electorate yourself. One assumes you work in the CBD to afford to live in the electorate in the first place.
Sam sees him all the time in Newmarket. But Sam must be lying.
If you want to see Rodney then I would suggest arranging an appointment like everyone else does. He’s likely to respond far more quickly than the Worth chap.
April 28, 2008 at 7:49 am
Pascal’s bookie - “the NZ public have no desire for neoliberal reform”
Thank goodness ACT have proposed nothing close to that in the lead up to the election. So far what Roger and Rodney have been talking about has been great.
And on that note National can keep on releasing no policy and that should be enough to win.
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